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> Rates & Financing

Mortgage Rates as of 9/30/2025

> Headlines & Insights

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10-Year Treasury Yields Slip on Weak Jobs Data and Government Shutdown

U.S. Treasury yields dropped Wednesday after a surprise decline in private payrolls and as markets reacted to the federal government shutdown. The 10-year Treasury yield slid to 4.11%, while the 30-year yield moved down to 4.70%.

Main takeaways:

• Private payrolls fell by 32,000 in September, well below expectations for a gain of 45,000. August numbers were also revised lower.

• The federal government shut down after Congress failed to agree on a funding bill, raising concerns about delayed data releases and potential long-term risks to U.S. credit quality.

• Short-term yields also moved lower, with the 2-year yield down to 3.56%, reflecting expectations of softer growth and possible Fed rate cuts.

What this means for Utah investors:
Falling Treasury yields often put downward pressure on mortgage rates, which could ease financing costs for Utah multifamily buyers in the coming months. However, political uncertainty from the government shutdown and labor market weakness may add volatility. Investors should monitor borrowing conditions closely, as lower long-term yields could create buying opportunities if local property prices soften.

Utah Headlines

Utah Rents See Big Discounts — Salt Lake City/Ogden/Brigham City ranked among the top U.S. markets for apartment concessions in August, with 21.5% of units offering discounts averaging 11.5%. This puts Utah alongside high-supply markets like Austin and Denver, where landlords are using deep concessions to compete for renters amid cooling demand.

Lehi ranks among America’s best small cities — WalletHub named Lehi, Utah, the 10th best small city in the U.S. to live in 2025. Lehi scored especially high in economic health (No. 5 nationwide) and safety (No. 10), thanks to strong population and income growth plus low crime and accident rates. While the city fell short in quality-of-life rankings (No. 890), its $574,900 median home price is more affordable than many other top-ranked suburbs, cementing Lehi’s reputation as one of Utah’s fastest-growing and most desirable places to live.

National Headlines

Consumer Confidence Slips — The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 94.2 in September, its lowest level since April, as worries about jobs and inflation weigh on households. Fewer Americans see jobs as “plentiful,” with labor market optimism at its weakest since 2021, signaling growing recession risks.

Jobs Drop Amid Shutdown — ADP reported private payrolls fell by 32,000 in September, the sharpest decline since March 2023, with losses across most sectors except health and education. The surprise drop, combined with a government shutdown delaying official BLS data, heightens Fed policy uncertainty ahead of its late-October meeting.

Construction Hiring Slows — Open construction jobs dropped to 188,000 in August, down sharply from 304,000 a year ago, as homebuilding cooled. With national job openings also trending below 8 million, the softer labor market supports further Fed rate cuts in 2025.

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