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Mortgage Rates as of 10/08/2025

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Markets Flying Data-Blind as Fed Prepares to Speak

With the federal government still shut down, markets are running without key economic data. Treasury yields eased last week after a weak jobs report from ADP showed the economy lost 32,000 private jobs in September. Official data releases, including the monthly jobs report, are delayed until the government reopens.

Main takeaways:

• Rates and jobs: Treasury yields fell after the ADP jobs miss, reflecting worries about slower growth. The Fed is still expected to cut rates by 25 bps at its October 29 meeting.

• Fed in focus: There are 18 Fed speeches this week, including Chair Powell on Thursday, which could move markets. Investors will also review the FOMC minutes for hints on future rate cuts.

• Housing: Pending home sales rose 4% month-over-month, but Redfin economists warn that sales remain near multi-decade lows. Case-Shiller data shows home price growth slowing to 1.8% year-over-year.

• Shutdown impact: With agencies like the BLS and Census Bureau closed, official reports such as CPI, PCE, and GDP are unavailable. Economists are relying on private and state data instead.

Housing highlights:

• Price cuts rising: Sellers are cutting prices at record levels to attract cautious buyers.

• Luxury slowdown: Luxury home prices are up 4% to $1.25M, but sales are at their lowest August level in over a decade.

• Starter homes strong: Sales of starter homes rose 4%, reaching their highest August level in three years.

What this means for Utah investors:
With limited federal data, the market is moving on perception rather than proof. Utah investors should focus on local trends—especially inventory levels and pricing momentum. If the Fed confirms another rate cut later this month, borrowing costs could improve slightly, giving investors a short window to lock in financing before activity rebounds.

Utah Headlines

Utah Families Go Multi-Gen to Beat Housing Costs — With Utah’s median home price near $520,000 and mortgage rates above 6%, more families are turning to multi-generational living to afford homes. Roughly 5% of Utah households—about 60,000—now include three generations under one roof, mirroring a national rise as buyers combine incomes to qualify for larger mortgages. In new communities like Terraine in West Jordan, builders are seeing growing demand for homes designed to accommodate parents, grandparents, and kids together.

Utah Launches Condo Loan Program

— The Utah Housing Corporation has approved a new Condominium Construction Loan Program to boost affordable homeownership statewide. Funded by $300 million from the Utah Homes Investment Program, the initiative offers low-interest loans covering up to 100% of project costs for owner-occupied condos with five-year deed restrictions, supporting Gov. Cox’s goal to create 35,000 starter homes by 2030.

National Headlines

Shutdown Stalls CRE Momentum — The ongoing federal government shutdown is rippling through the commercial real estate sector, delaying data releases, project approvals, and federal lease negotiations. Analysts warn that uncertainty is tightening credit markets and chilling investor confidence, with retail and hospitality properties feeling the fastest hit as consumer spending drops in areas with large federal workforces. In Utah and across the U.S., developers depending on HUD financing or federal permits may face stalled projects until Washington reaches a deal.

Banks Modify CRE Loans as Pressures Rise — U.S. banks increased commercial real estate loan modifications 66% year-over-year, reaching $27.7 billion by mid-2025, according to the St. Louis Fed. With higher rates squeezing borrowers and property values falling, lenders are extending terms and restructuring debt to avoid defaults, a trend analysts say reflects growing strain ahead of a looming refinancing “maturity wall” from loans originated during the low-rate era.

Buyers Turn to Riskier Loans — As 30-year fixed mortgage rates hover around 6.4%, more borrowers are turning to adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) to shave costs. The ARM share rose to 9.5% last week—its highest level in over a year—as Utah buyers and others nationwide seek relief from high home prices and limited inventory. While ARMs offer lower initial rates, experts warn they carry greater long-term risk if rates rise after the fixed term expires.

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